This week: Population Changes Across New York; Newburgh Voting Rights Act Hearing Date Set; NYC Mayoral Race Litigation; VRA Preclearance Submissions, In Memorium: Dr. Andrew Beveridge
by Jeff Wice and Alexis Marking
CENSUS
Guest Column: Population Change Across New York State:
During and Post-Pandemic
By Leslie Reynolds, Research Support Specialist at Cornell University
On March 13th 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau released the Vintage 2024 Estimates of County Population Totals and Components of Change. This series estimates the population on April 1st 2020, and July 1st every year from 2020 to 2024. This release also included estimates of the components of change: Natural increase (births – deaths), net domestic migration (the number moving in from another part of the U.S.- moving out to another part of the U.S.) and net international migration (the number moving in from another country – moving out to another country). These are the factors that together determine the amount a population changes over time.
In 2020 the COVID19 pandemic became a global health crisis, and this altered the way population changed in the affected years. After the onset of the pandemic, the U.S. overall saw elevated deaths, depressed births, reduced international migration, and domestic migration patterns that differed from those seen in the previous decade. However, in the second half of this estimates period (starting around 2022), the effects of this demographic “shock” began to dwindle, and in many places the components of population change began to resemble the pre-COVID years. From 2020 to 2022, the population in New York State declined by 2.0% (-401,424 people). But from 2022 to 2024, the state grew again by 0.8% (+163,501 people). Many counties within New York State experienced population change (or lack of change) that diverged from the state pattern overall in one or both periods.
As part of our analysis of the recent estimates release, we approached this time series as having two parts: change from July 2020 to July 2022 representing the active pandemic years and change from 2022 to 2024 representing the “post” Pandemic years. To visualize the different patterns across counties, we classified county population change for each period in one of the following groups: Decline (a decrease of 1% or more), Stable (change between -1% and 1%) or Increase (growth of 1% or more). In the accompanying map, counties with change that fell in the same group in both periods are shown as one of the following colors: orange (decline for both periods; labeled DD), grey (stable in both periods; labeled SS), or dark purple (increase in both periods; labeled II). There were only two counties with consecutive declines (Chenango and Schuyler) and two with consecutive increases (Rockland and Orange). Remaining stable in both periods was the most common pattern (21 counties), followed by a decline in the first period and remaining stable in the second (labeled DS), which is shown in light green (20 counties). There were a few counties in which population change reversed direction entirely: an increase in the first half and decrease in the second (labeled ID) is shown in hot pink (only Delaware County), or a decrease in the first half and increase in the second (labeled DI), which is shown in dark green (Franklin, New York [Manhattan], and Queens). Because of New York City’s relative population size, population change in the state reflects the patterns seen in the boroughs during this time series- population decline during the pandemic followed by a slight increase. But regions such as the Mid-Hudson, Southern Tier, and Capital Region changed differently from the state overall and the city. This visualization allowed us to zoom into the heterogeneity of population changes across the state before and after the COVID19 pandemic and will help us better contextualize the pandemic effects on each county’s population change.
N.Y. VOTING RIGHTS ACT LITIGATION
STATE VOTING RIGHTS ACT
Attorney General Approves VRA Preclearance Submissions; New Submissions Arrive
The Attorney General’s Section granted two Voting Rights Act Submissions last week. One was from the Nassau County Board of Elections regarding election day poll site changes (201) while another was granted to the Suffolk County Board of Elections for an early voting poll site change (101). The New York City Board of Elections submitted one election day and early voting poll site change now under review (241) and an additional submission for early voting and election day poll site changes is under review (262). The Nassau County Board of Elections submitted a request for an election day and poll site change that is also under review (262).
In Memorium: Dr. Andrew Beveridge
We report with sadness the passing of Dr. Andrew Beveridge, one of New York and the nation’s foremost experts in demographics and redistricting. Dr. Beveridge was active in numerous New York redistricting cases and was instrumental in providing data and analysis on so many topics of importance to our community. A memorial service is being planned at the City University Graduate Center. Here’s a link to the New York Times obituary: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/16/us/politics/andrew-a-beveridge-dead.html?unlocked_article_code=1.AU8.RnAR.5hLyWc43UnuE&smid=url-share
INSTITUTE RESOURCES
The New York Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute has archived many resources for the public to view on our Digital Commons Page.
Our Redistricting Resources page contains resources on the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Act. You can access the page
here: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/redistricting_resources/
Archived Updates can be accessed
here: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/redistricting_roundtable_updates/
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The N.Y. Elections, Census & Redistricting Institute is supported by grants from the New York Community Trust, New York Census Equity Fund and the New York City Council. This report was prepared by Jeff Wice and Alexis Marking.