This week- New State Population Demographics, NYC Prepares for Census 2030, VRA Preclearance Action, Around the Nation: Louisiana, Illinois, South Carolina, Upcoming Events
by Jeff Wice and Alexis Marking
CENSUS
New State Population Demographics: Jan Vink, the Senior Extension Associate at the Cornell Program on Applied Demographics reports that “the Census Bureau released Vintage 2024 estimates of population characteristics. These are estimates of the population by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin.
You can read the Census Bureau’s press release here: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/older-adults-outnumber-children.html
The release covers the period 2020 through July 1, 2024 and is consistent with earlier estimates of total population.
Unsurprisingly, the population in New York State is getting older and more diverse.
The median age was 39.2 in 2020 and has increased to 40.0 in 2024. In 2024 Tompkins County had the lowest median age (31.9) and Hamilton County the highest (57.8).
The share of the population that is classified as Non-Hispanic White decreased from 54.6% in 2020 to 53.2% in 2024, while especially the shares of the Asian and Hispanic populations increased.
In New York City the Non-Hispanic White population is the largest group, but not a majority. The share decreased from 32.4% to 31.6%. In the remainder of the state the share of the Non Hispanic White population was 71.8% in 2020 and 69.3% in 2024.
A couple of notes to keep in mind:
- This data is only available through the population estimates web pages: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/data-sets.html
- Recently the Census Bureau added estimates of population characteristics to data.census.gov, but these are part to the vintage 2023 estimates that are overwritten with these estimates. In the near future the Census Bureau is hoping to make this data available through data.census.gov and API, but the last we heard that might take a couple of months
- Next year’s vintage will likely change these estimates somewhat:
- This vintage starts with the blended base, and not with the recently released MARC file. The MARC file (Modified Age Race Census) is solely based on the 2020 Census, whereas the blended base uses very limited characteristic information from the 2020 Census. For a few counties this difference will probably be noticeable, especially in New York City.
- Improvements in the estimates of the spatial distribution and of the characteristics of the recent humanitarian migration flows are being researched.”
New York City Prepares for Census 2020: Winnie Hu reported in the New York Times on the recent April census organizing meeting convened at New York Law School. The meeting included remarks (via recordings) from U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and N.Y. State Assemblyman Landon Dais. Convened by N.Y.C. Council Member Julie Menin, New York Law School, and the New York City Central Labor Council, the meeting took a look a how the 2020 census was run in the city, what is being done now to prepare for the census, and how to begin preparing for 2030. Read the article here: http://bit.ly/4nwy71G
ELECTIONS
Upcoming election deadlines:
July 1- absentee and early voting ballots must be received by county Board of Elections
July 1- in New York City, ranked choice vote tabulations get underway
July 15- If necessary, additional rounds of ranked choice analysis will be done as additional absentee ballots come in until the Board of Elections certifies the election July 15.
REDISTRICTING
State Independent Redistricting Commission: Last week’s update incorrectly identified the newest member of the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission. The new member is Jamie Romeo. Romeo also serves as the Monroe County Clerk.
VOTING RIGHTS ACT PRECLEARANCE
561 Nassau Co. Board of Elections- poll site locations- granted
Numbers refer to submisson numbers
All submissions can be viewed at: https://nyvra-portal.ag.ny.gov/
AROUND THE NATION
Campaign Spending Limits: Earlier today, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear a challenge backed by President Donald Trump to eliminate limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with candidates for Congress and president.
The Court will review an appellate ruling that upheld a provision of federal election law that is more than 50 years old and last upheld by the Court in 2001.
The elimination of limits on party spending could allow large donors to avoid caps on individual contributions to a candidate by directing unlimited dollars to the party as long as the money will be spent on behalf of the candidate.
U.S. Supreme Court to Rehear Louisiana Congressional Challenge: The U.S. Supreme Court decided to rehear a challenge to Louisiana’s congressional map in the next term beginning in October. In Louisiana v. Callais, the Court is being asked to decide the role of politics can play when maps are drawn to help elect minority-preferred candidates. The Court rarely holds cases over for a rehearing, indicating not only that the justices were not ready to decide this case but that they may be waiting on other similar cases or that they may be ready to make major changes to how voting rights laws are to be considered.
Other voting rights cases are making their way to the Supreme Court, including another appeal from Alabama over its congressional map and a case from North Dakota addressing whether private parties have a right to bring actions under Section 2 of the federal Voting Rights Act.
Justice Clarence Thomas dissented, arguing that the Court should decide the case right away to make the law clear.
Illinois Redistricting Challenge Dismissed: The Illinois Supreme Court has ruled that Illinois House Republicans waited too long to file a lawsuit challenging the 2021 legislative maps. The lawsuit asked the court to reject the current legislative map due to partisan bias and “lack of compactness.” The plaintiffs also asked the court to appoint a special master to redraw the legislative districts.
The Illinois Supreme Court ruled that the plaintiffs’ argument that “waiting multiple election cycles is necessary to reveal the effects of redistricting” is unpersuasive. As stated in the ruling, “Plaintiffs’ approach would be prejudicial and create uncertainty for voters and officeholders alike, now and in the future, as to whether any redistricting plan in Illinois is ever final.” The court also noted that 2020 Census population data may be “stale” after five years to redraw.
The Illinois Democrats argued, “To allow plaintiffs to proceed now, mid-decade, with their proposed redistricting challenge would invite political parties to wait until they have a wave election and use their best election results to justify a partisan challenge to the legislative map.” Republicans argued that more than half of the current House districts are less compact than the district tossed out in 1981 by the state court.
Republican leaders argued that they will review additional legal options, but will not be continuing this effort in court. Ryan Spain, a Republican State Representative, said that he wants to try another petition for a ballot referendum on this matter.
South Carolina Congressional Map in Court: The South Carolina Supreme Court heard oral arguments in League of Women Voters of South Carolina v. Alexander last week. This lawsuit was filed in July 2024 and challenges the constitutionality of the state’s 2022 congressional map. The plaintiffs argue that the map was drawn with the “express aim” of strengthening the Republican majority in South Carolina’s first congressional district by shifting “Democratic-leaning” populations (primarily Black voters) out of the district. The plaintiffs contend that this violates Article 1, Section 5 of the state constitution.
UPCOMING EVENTS
NYC Charter Revision Commission
The NYC Charter Revision Commission is considering including a proposal on the city ballot to open its closed primary system to independent voters who currently cannot vote in party primary elections. Public hearing are being held for comment:
- Manhattan, Mon 7/7: Langston Hughes Auditorium at Schomburg Center for Research in Black Culture, 515 Malcolm X Boulevard 10037
Comments can also be sent to: https://www.nycopenprimary.com/take-action-crc
INSTITUTE RESOURCES
The New York Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute has archived many resources for the public to view on our Digital Commons Page.
Our Redistricting Resources page contains resources on the John R. Lewis Voting Rights Act. You can access the page
here: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/redistricting_resources/
Archived Updates can be accessed
here: https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/redistricting_roundtable_updates/
Please share this weekly update with your colleagues. To be added to the mailing list, please contact Jeffrey.wice@nyls.edu
The N.Y. Elections, Census & Redistricting Institute is supported by grants from the New York Community Trust, New York Census Equity Fund and the New York City Council. This report was prepared by Jeff Wice and Alexis Marking.